Why the Eurozone will have to give in to Greece
- Greece’s Government wants a managed default; not to leave the Eurozone
- The ECB can make it very difficult for Greece to stay in the Euro,
The emperor is naked! There is no mechanism to force an exit and the ECBs supposed powers are irrelevant – see below the likely course of negotiations if they go to the brink and over it.
- Greece refuses to agree to austerity and threatens default.
- EU threatens to force them out of the Eurozone. Bluff called as there is no mechanism to force this on a country
- The ECB refuses to lend to Greek banks hoping that the Greeks will back down. Bluff called.
- ECB refuses to lend and the banks fail
- Immediate bank nationalisation by the Greek Government and a default on all the banks debt.
- This will be followed by immediate default on the Greek debt
- Greece then continues to use Euros within a nationalised banking industry, noting ECB can do
- Impact on Greece? Limited as the country is viable economically
Now, let’s watch what happens. My guess…..large amounts of Greek debt will be written-off – the market prices the debt now at 56% of face value – see here. The interest paid on this debt is now around 10%. Seems like a great deal – buy Greek debt and get 10% per annum and it’s in Euros – brilliant. Don’t do it.
Can the EU change the rules and create a mechanism to force an exit from the Eurozone? Hmmmm…….need to check it out. I suspect such a move would need to be adopted unanimously.
Do rules exist for all or for some! I had no idea when I was young that “we” can bomb people without declaring war and without judging them in a court!
Bitcoin – what is it? Think of it as a video game. It has rules but, unlike video games, Bitcoin is “distributed”. This means that the rules cannot be changed without every participant of Bitcoin agreeing. This means that the rules won’t change – ever. If there are better rules then a new Bitcoin will develop.
The rules say that Bitcoins can be exchanged, can be created and have a limit – they cannot exceed 21 million. They can be created by “hard work”, called “mining”. Basically anyone who has the funds can invest in computer hardware to create Bitcoins. The more that are created, the more difficult it is to create new Bitcoins. The return on investment, i.e. the return on investing time and money in “mining” Bitcoins, is high at the beginning and lower towards the end (on the basis of today’s technology).
What is great about Bitcoins is that they can be exchanged without banks, Governments and regulators. It is akin to barter and brings power to the people not to the institutions.
Note that should you buy Bitcoins then changing them back to “country currencies” is under attack by Governments. This is Bitcoins vulnerability but also it’s strength – if Bitcoin takes off, why would you ever want to exchange it for another currency!
Two articles of interest – both these people visited Syria as part of an 8 country delegation.
It is entirely clear to me from reports comping out of Syria that the CIA and Mossad are working their magic and yet again we have regime change as the objective. Why this is their objective is a matter of speculation. What is sure is that they are there! If Charles Taylor of Sierra Leone can get slammed up for 50 years for financing gangs that committed war crimes then Obama an be indicted and so can Cameron, Sarkozy and others for arming terrorists to enter Syria and create chaos and perpetrate atrocities.
With 3 million Kurds in Syria out of a total 21 million, the Kurds are on a roll – they are not Arabs and want their land back. they already have the north of Iraq, Turkey won’t give them anything and nether will Iran – the big opportunity for Kurds is Syria. With the North of Iraq and the North East of Syria they can at last have independence for Kurdistan. What an opportunity – now that the head of the Sryrian National Council is a Kurd they are well on their way!
Have a look at where the Western media – those intrepid journalists are getting their information – http://www.countercurrents.org/collins310712.htm
The only way to bring a country or corporation back from the dead is to halt all payments to creditors – the Greek Government is spending only slightly more than it earns (3% of GDP) if interest and loan repayments are ignored and with military spending at over 3% (double the NATO average) this is easy to address.